希尼爾翻譯公司（www.eacrwc.tw）2016年1月12日了解到：Renminbi poses communication challenge Global investors began 2016 with a keen eye on China and the
direction of the renminbi. The first two days of trading this year have
dramatically demonstrated why the dance around the currency between the
markets and China’s central bank matters.
China’s financial markets are rivalling Wall Street in setting
the mood for global investors with changes in the renminbi the main
transmission mechanism. As a result, global investors’ interpretation of
signals from the People’s Bank of China is influencing assets from oil
to US share prices.
Since Monday, the offshore rate has weakened at its fastest pace
since the shock August devaluation that rocked world markets. The spread
between the tightly controlled onshore rate and its offshore cousin on
Tuesday also hit a fresh record — suggesting discord between China and
international markets over its exchange rate is rising.
At issue is the struggle of international investors to gauge the
PBoC’s willingness since the August shock to allow markets to set the
exchange rate. The key parameter is the daily “fix” or midpoint set at
9.15am in Beijing each day, at which the onshore renminbi is permitted
to trade either side by 2 per cent.
Before August the midpoint was used by the central bank to signal
where it wanted the currency to trade. Changes during the summer were in
part designed to flip this system by decreeing the fix would instead
reflect the previous day’s market close — meaning it was no longer to be
considered a signal.
Mainland traders say its weather vane role has indeed greatly
“Now the midpoint is just based on the previous day’s spot close.
It’s not really an expression of the PBoC’s thinking,” says the head of
forex trading at a midsized Chinese bank in Shanghai.
But international investors are unwilling to abandon what they
see as one of few pieces of guidance from the PBoC, which said in August
it would set the midpoint mainly in reference to the previous day’s spot
close — but also left itself leeway to consider “other” factors.
“Post-August, the signal is not as clear as it used to be, but I
don’t think anyone is prepared to entirely look past the fix,” says Paul
Mackel, head of emerging markets foreign exchange research at HSBC.
“We’re still looking for some guidance from the PBoC and that 9.15am
moment has been ingrained in market thinking for years.”
On Tuesday the onshore fix was set at Rmb6.5169 to the dollar,
and the currency ended the Chinese trading day at Rmb6.5198 —
fractionally stronger than its Monday close in China. The offshore rate,
however, weakened sharply to Rmb6.6435, taking the renminbi’s two-day
loss to 1.2 per cent.
The gap is an embarrassment for the central bank, which stated
that eliminating the spread between the two rates was a goal of its
policy changes last August. 這種差距讓中國央行感到尷尬，因為它在去年8月宣布，消除兩種匯率的差距是其政策調整的目標。
Different interpretations of the PBoC’s intentions reflect the
difficulties facing the central bank and its management of the currency;
allowing market forces greater sway, while also preventing a disorderly
depreciation, which would encourage greater capital flight. With the
midpoint no longer its preferred signal, the PBoC is instead relying on
direct market intervention when it wants to influence the rate.
“It’s a dangerous situation when everyone knows the renminbi will
depreciate. The PBoC is just trying to make sure the fall is
controllable,” says the forex trader. “They know this is anti-market
behaviour. Actually they’d rather not do it, but they have no choice.
They can’t allow a fall like what happened to the rouble.”
The limitations of intervention have become clear after foreign
exchange reserves fell $213bn in the four months to the end of November
last year. Continued dollar selling by the PBoC raised the prospect that
China’s forex reserves, which once seemed limitless, could be quickly
Indeed, traders said the PBoC’s dollar selling, which had
diminished in recent weeks, surged again yesterday after the renminbi
weakened by 0.6 per cent on Monday — its third-biggest one-day decline
on record, trailing only two days during the August devaluation.