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人民幣中間價風向標角色減弱 (中英雙語)


希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)2016年1月12日了解到:Renminbi poses communication challenge
Global investors began 2016 with a keen eye on China and the direction of the renminbi. The first two days of trading this year have dramatically demonstrated why the dance around the currency between the markets and China’s central bank matters. 全球投資者在2016年伊始密切關注中國以及人民幣走勢。今年頭兩個交易日戲劇化地表明,為何市場與中國央行之間圍繞人民幣的互動非常重要。

China’s financial markets are rivalling Wall Street in setting the mood for global investors with changes in the renminbi the main transmission mechanism. As a result, global investors’ interpretation of signals from the People’s Bank of China is influencing assets from oil to US share prices. 在影響全球投資者情緒方面,中國金融市場正在趕上華爾街,而人民幣匯率的變化成了主要傳導機制。其結果是,全球投資者對中國人民銀行(PBoC)發出的信號的解讀,影響著從石油到美國股價的各類資產。

Since Monday, the offshore rate has weakened at its fastest pace since the shock August devaluation that rocked world markets. The spread between the tightly controlled onshore rate and its offshore cousin on Tuesday also hit a fresh record — suggesting discord between China and international markets over its exchange rate is rising. 自本周一以來,離岸人民幣匯率以自去年8月撼動全球市場的貶值以來的最快速度下跌。周二,受到嚴格控制的在岸匯率和離岸匯率之間的差額也創出新的紀錄,似乎表明中國和國際市場圍繞人民幣匯率走勢的分歧在加大。

At issue is the struggle of international investors to gauge the PBoC’s willingness since the August shock to allow markets to set the exchange rate. The key parameter is the daily “fix” or midpoint set at 9.15am in Beijing each day, at which the onshore renminbi is permitted to trade either side by 2 per cent. 問題的癥結在于,國際投資者很難判斷中國人民銀行自去年8月以來在多大程度上愿意允許市場設定匯率。關鍵參數是央行每天上午9點15分在北京發布的中間價,人民幣在岸匯率被允許在中間價上下2%的范圍內波動。

Before August the midpoint was used by the central bank to signal where it wanted the currency to trade. Changes during the summer were in part designed to flip this system by decreeing the fix would instead reflect the previous day’s market close — meaning it was no longer to be considered a signal. 在去年8月之前,中間價被中國央行用于暗示它想要的人民幣匯率水平。去年夏季的改變在一定程度上是為了反轉這個體系,中國央行宣布中間價將反映前一天的市場收盤價,這意味著它不再被視為一種信號。

Mainland traders say its weather vane role has indeed greatly reduced. 中國內地交易員表示,中間價的風向標角色確實已被大幅削弱。

“Now the midpoint is just based on the previous day’s spot close. It’s not really an expression of the PBoC’s thinking,” says the head of forex trading at a midsized Chinese bank in Shanghai. 上海一家中等規模的中資銀行的外匯交易主管表示:“現在中間價只是建立在前一天現貨收盤價的基礎之上。它沒有真正表達中國人民銀行的思路。”

But international investors are unwilling to abandon what they see as one of few pieces of guidance from the PBoC, which said in August it would set the midpoint mainly in reference to the previous day’s spot close — but also left itself leeway to consider “other” factors. 但國際投資者不愿放棄他們眼里中國人民銀行發布的極少數指引之一,后者在去年8月表示,中間價將主要參考前一天現貨收盤價,但也為自己留下了余地,稱它也將考慮“其他”因素。

“Post-August, the signal is not as clear as it used to be, but I don’t think anyone is prepared to entirely look past the fix,” says Paul Mackel, head of emerging markets foreign exchange research at HSBC. “We’re still looking for some guidance from the PBoC and that 9.15am moment has been ingrained in market thinking for years.” 匯豐銀行(HSBC)新興市場外匯研究部門主管保羅?梅克爾(Paul Mackel)表示:“去年8月之后,信號不像過去那么清晰了,但我認為沒有人準備完全忽視中間價。我們仍在關注來自中國人民銀行的某種指引,再說市場關注上午9點15分的習慣多年來已變得根深蒂固。”

On Tuesday the onshore fix was set at Rmb6.5169 to the dollar, and the currency ended the Chinese trading day at Rmb6.5198 — fractionally stronger than its Monday close in China. The offshore rate, however, weakened sharply to Rmb6.6435, taking the renminbi’s two-day loss to 1.2 per cent. 周二,人民幣兌美元的在岸匯率中間價為6.5169,當天交易結束時是6.5198,略高于周一的收盤價。然而,離岸匯率大幅下跌至6.6435,使得人民幣兩天跌幅達到1.2%。

The gap is an embarrassment for the central bank, which stated that eliminating the spread between the two rates was a goal of its policy changes last August. 這種差距讓中國央行感到尷尬,因為它在去年8月宣布,消除兩種匯率的差距是其政策調整的目標。

Different interpretations of the PBoC’s intentions reflect the difficulties facing the central bank and its management of the currency; allowing market forces greater sway, while also preventing a disorderly depreciation, which would encourage greater capital flight. With the midpoint no longer its preferred signal, the PBoC is instead relying on direct market intervention when it wants to influence the rate. 對中國人民銀行意圖的不同解讀反映出中國央行及其匯率管理工作面臨的困難:允許市場力量發揮更大作用,同時阻止無序貶值,后者將鼓勵資本外逃。鑒于中間價不再是其優選的信號指標,中國人民銀行在想要影響匯率時會依賴市場干預。

“It’s a dangerous situation when everyone knows the renminbi will depreciate. The PBoC is just trying to make sure the fall is controllable,” says the forex trader. “They know this is anti-market behaviour. Actually they’d rather not do it, but they have no choice. They can’t allow a fall like what happened to the rouble.” 前述外匯交易員表示:“當所有人都知道人民幣將要貶值的時候,局面就很危險。中國人民銀行只是試圖確保人民幣下跌是可控的。他們知道這是反市場的行為,實際上他們寧愿不這么做,但他們別無選擇。他們不能允許盧布那樣的下跌。”

The limitations of intervention have become clear after foreign exchange reserves fell $213bn in the four months to the end of November last year. Continued dollar selling by the PBoC raised the prospect that China’s forex reserves, which once seemed limitless, could be quickly exhausted. 中國外匯儲備在截至去年11月底的4個月里下降2130億美元,充分暴露了干預的局限性。中國人民銀行持續拋售美元引發了中國一度貌似無窮大的外匯儲備可能很快耗盡的前景。

Indeed, traders said the PBoC’s dollar selling, which had diminished in recent weeks, surged again yesterday after the renminbi weakened by 0.6 per cent on Monday — its third-biggest one-day decline on record, trailing only two days during the August devaluation. 的確,雖然中國央行最近幾周減緩了對美元的拋售,但交易員們表示,在人民幣匯率本周一下跌0.6%之后——這是有記錄以來的第三大單日跌幅,僅次于去年8月人民幣貶值期間的兩天——中國人民銀行再次大舉拋售美元。