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希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)2015年12月30日了解到:At the end of October, Li Keqiang, China’s premier, toasted Angela Merkel. He and the German chancellor cheerily clanked large tankards of German-style dark beer brewed by the students at Hefei University in eastern China. 10月底,中國總理李克強向德國總理安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)祝酒,兩位領導人興致勃勃地碰了碰各自手中的大號啤酒杯,品嘗由合肥學院(Hefei University)學生釀造的德國黑啤。

Mr Li’s high spirits in Hefei were easy to explain. The EU’s most powerful leader revealed she was “in principle, positive” towards granting market economy status (MES) to China, offering fresh hopes that one of Beijing’s most prized ambitions could be realised in 2016. 李克強當時的好興致是很容易解釋的。作為歐盟(EU)最有影響力的領導人,默克爾表示對給予中國市場經濟地位(MES)“原則上持積極態度”,這帶來了新的希望,預示北京方面最重大的心愿之一有可能在2016年實現。

Still, Ms Merkel also admitted that MES was a double-edged sword. She warned that China still had work to do, particularly in the field of procurement contracts. Elsewhere on her trip, she cautioned that Europe’s steel and solar industries — seen as especially vulnerable to Chinese dumping — needed protection. 不過默克爾也坦承,市場經濟地位是一把雙刃劍。她警告說,中國仍有工作要做,尤其是在采購合同方面。在這次訪華行程中的其他站,她也提醒說,歐洲的鋼鐵和太陽能產業需要得到保護(這兩個產業被認為格外容易受到中國傾銷的影響)。

Ms Merkel’s ambiguous message, tailored for both Mr Li and European industries, laid bare the EU’s tortured position over whether to grant MES. 默克爾傳遞出的含混信息——分別為李克強和歐洲工業界“量身定制”——暴露出歐盟在是否授予中國市場經濟地位問題上的為難處境。

Diplomats and businessmen involved in the process say that the European Commission is likely to propose MES for the Communist state as early as February. The 28 member states and European parliament will then have to decide whether to approve that proposal. Britain is the strongest supporter of China, while Italy is adamantly opposed to MES. 參與相關事務的外交官和商界人士表示,歐盟委員會(European Commission)最早可能會在2016年2月提議賦予這個共產主義國家市場經濟地位。之后,歐盟28個成員國和歐洲議會將需要決定是否批準這一提案。英國是中國最堅定的支持者,意大利則堅決反對賦予中國市場經濟地位。

To its supporters, MES is a way to win favour in Beijing. This can smooth the course of EU factory investments in China and help boost Chinese financing of infrastructure in Europe. 在支持者來看,給予中國市場經濟地位是贏得北京方面好感的好辦法。這么做會減少歐盟企業在華投資建廠的障礙,也可以促使中國增加對歐洲基礎設施建設的投資。

But critics argue that MES will kill traditional industries, including steel, ceramics and textiles, because it will become far harder to retaliate against Chinese dumping with countervailing tariffs. The left-leaning Economic Policy Institute in Washington has concluded that MES would endanger as many as 3.5m jobs in the EU. 批評者則稱,賦予中國市場經濟地位將毀滅歐洲傳統產業,包括鋼鐵、陶瓷和紡織等,因為那時再要用反傾銷稅報復中國的傾銷行為將困難得多。位于華盛頓、立場左傾的經濟政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)估計,假如賦予中國市場經濟地位,歐盟境內多達350萬個工作崗位將面臨威脅。

Europe’s need to make a decision on MES next year is rooted in the terms of China’s agreement of accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001. Beijing argues this accord means that it will automatically become a market economy at the end of 2016. The EU needs to decide whether it agrees with that interpretation. 歐洲之所以需要在明年就是否賦予中國市場經濟地位做出決定,是因為2001年的中國加入世界貿易組織(WTO)議定書中列有相關條款。中國政府聲稱,根據議定書,中國將在2016年底自動成為市場經濟國家。歐盟則需要就是否認同這一解釋做出決定。

Europe’s traditional industries have led the campaign to deny China MES. The ¢28bn ceramics sector says that as many as 100,000 jobs, or half the total it employs in Europe, are at risk. About 33,000 jobs were lost in the tableware sector in the seven years to 2011 before anti-dumping tariffs were imposed, according to Cerame-Unie, a trade body. 歐洲傳統產業帶頭發起了抵制給予中國市場經濟地位的宣傳攻勢。產值達280億歐元的歐洲陶瓷產業聲稱,多達10萬個工作崗位有危險了,占該產業歐洲用工總人數的一半。根據歐洲陶瓷工業協會(Cerame-Unie)的數據,在開征反傾銷稅之前,在截至2011年的7年里餐具產業損失了約3.3萬個工作崗位。

“Our concern is not to protect markets, but to ensure a fair, level playing field and prevent injurious effects of unfair practices, like dumping and subsidies,” said Alain Delcourt, president of Cerame-Unie. 歐洲陶瓷工業協會會長阿蘭?德爾古(Alain Delcourt)表示:“我們所想的不是要保護市場,而是要確保公正、公平的競爭環境,防止傾銷、補貼之類的不公正行為的有害影響。”

Volumes of Chinese steel entering Europe have nearly doubled over the past two years, according to Eurofer, the European Steel Association, even as demand for steel languishes. It warns of “massive job losses and plant closures” should MES be granted. “Already we have the most open market with less efficient [trade defence] tools than other regions, such as the US,” said Axel Eggert, director-general of Eurofer. 盡管鋼鐵需求疲軟,但根據歐洲鋼鐵聯盟(Eurofer)的數據,過去兩年流入歐洲的中國產鋼鐵接近翻倍。該組織警告稱,一旦賦予中國市場經濟地位,將出現“大規模工作崗位流失和工廠關閉”。歐洲鋼鐵聯盟總干事阿克塞爾?埃格特(Axel Eggert)表示:“我們有最開放的市場,但我們的(貿易保護)手段不如其他地區有效,比如美國。”

His comment reflects widespread frustration with the European Commission for being slow to act against trade infringements. Business people often see Brussels as reluctant to use anti-dumping tariffs against China, as they can spark threats of counter-attacks from Beijing in unrelated sectors. Beijing, for example, threatened to clamp down on EU wine imports in 2013 in a dispute over solar technologies. 他的言論反映出,人們普遍對歐盟委員會遲遲不采取行動對抗不正當貿易行為感到不滿。商界人士往往認為,布魯塞爾方面不愿意對中國動用反傾銷稅,因為這樣做可能促使北京方面威脅對不相關產業采取反制措施。例如,2013年,在圍繞太陽能技術的貿易爭端中,北京方面就威脅要限制對歐盟葡萄酒的進口。

Officials in the commission complain that industry is exaggerating the idea that the EU would be pulling down its defences, and some even expect that EU manufacturers higher up the value chain using cheap Chinese raw materials could profit from MES. 歐盟委員會官員抱怨稱,工業界夸大了有關歐盟會放棄所有保護手段的說法。部分官員甚至預計,處在價值鏈較高端并且采用中國廉價原材料的歐盟制造商有望從中國的市場經濟地位中獲利。

EU trade officials say that other safeguards — including anti-subsidy measures — can be used against market economies such as the US and Russia. But companies complain that the burden of proof is far higher than in dumping cases. For anti-dumping cases, Brussels can prove Chinese prices are unfairly low by referencing prices in third countries. Subsidy inquiries can require documents as evidence, which are often impossible to obtain from China. 歐盟貿易官員表示,可以采用其他保護措施——包括反補貼措施——對付市場經濟國家,比如美國和俄羅斯。企業則抱怨,與傾銷案相比,這么做的舉證負擔要大得多。在反傾銷案例中,布魯塞爾方面可以參照第三國價格來證明中方價格過低。反補貼調查則可能會要求提供相關文件作為證據,而這些文件往往不可能從中國得到。

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director at the European Centre for International Political Economy, predicted a long fight. “Even if the EU starts the legislative process today, it’s unlikely to be ready for adoption before the 2016 deadline. Some member states are apprehensive of fair rules on anti-dumping to begin with, and would also manipulate their EU parliamentarians for that reason.” 歐洲國際政治經濟中心(ECIPE)主任霍素克?李-牧山浩石(Hosuk Lee-Makiyama)預計,這將是一場曠日持久的斗爭。“即便歐盟今天啟動立法程序,也不太可能準備好在2016年截止日期之前實行。部分成員國首先就對反傾銷的公平規則存在顧慮,它們也會出于這個原因左右本國在歐洲議會的議員。”