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人民幣入籃將推動貨幣格局“再平衡” (中英雙語)


希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)2015年12月10日了解到:The announcement that the renminbi meets the International Monetary Fund’s criteria as a “freely usable” currency will have come as no surprise to those who have followed China’s unprecedented steps to open up its capital markets. 人民幣達到國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)“可自由使用”貨幣的標準,這一宣言并不會讓那些一直關注中國開放資本市場的空前舉措的人感到驚訝。

It means a technical hurdle on the renminbi’s ascent as a global currency has been cleared away and makes it near certain that the IMF executive board will include the Chinese currency into its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies, effective from October 1 next year. 這意味著,人民幣崛起為一種全球性貨幣的技術障礙已經被掃除,IMF執行董事會將把人民幣納入特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子,明年10月1日起正式生效。

A monumental milestone for the renminbi, this event would trigger significant but gradual inflows of funds into the currency, changing the global currency landscape forever, as central banks, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and multilateral institutions recalibrate their balance sheets. 這對人民幣來說是一個重大里程碑,隨著各國央行、主權財富基金(SWF)和多邊機構重新調整各自的資產負債表,這將促使總額龐大資金逐步流入人民幣,永久改變全球貨幣格局。

Many will not wait until next year before taking action. Indeed as many as 70 central banks have already invested part of their reserves into renminbi, either inside China or offshore. 很多機構不會等到明年才采取行動。事實上,多達70家央行已經把一部分儲備投資于人民幣,這些資產或是在中國境內,或是在離岸市場。

The reforms made by China to qualify for SDR inclusion have been so radical that — to public sector investors — the renminbi has become fully convertible with no restrictions on access or size of investment in the China interbank bond market, something that has gone largely unnoticed. 為了取得被納入SDR的資格,中國進行的改革十分徹底,以至于對公共部門投資者而言,人民幣已經變得完全可兌換,在中國銀行間債券市場沒有準入或投資規模的限制,這件事情在很大程度上被人們忽視了。

Six out of the world’s 10 largest central banks have so far refrained from investing in the Chinese interbank bond market. However, because of China’s recent reforms, these and many other public sector investors are now reviewing their stance. 世界10家最大央行中的6家迄今未曾投資中國銀行間債券市場。然而,由于中國近期推行的改革,這些央行和其他許多公共部門投資者正在重新考慮它們的立場。

Eventually, we should expect to see the renminbi reach a double-digit share of global reserves — inflows in the order of $800bn to more than $1tn. Even a conservative estimate of a reallocation of about 1 per cent of global reserves each year would mean about $80bn inflows annually — no mean sum. 最終,我們應該有望看到人民幣在全球儲備中的比例達到兩位數,資金流入介于8000億至逾1萬億美元。即使進行保守估計,假設每年大約有1%的全球儲備重新分配,那也意味著每年約800億美元的資金流入——這不是一個小數目。

Added to the moves by central banks, will be those by SWFs. Norway’s SWF alone is likely to invest over $40bn according to their GDP weighted benchmark. 央行以外,采取行動的還將包括主權財富基金。僅挪威主權財富基金就可能根據其國內生產總值(GDP)加權基準,對人民幣投資逾400億美元。

The implementation of the renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR basket 10 months from now is also set to inevitably trigger a significant rebalancing or hedging demand for the Chinese currency, though this, too, is likely to occur gradually. 10個月后,人民幣加入SDR將正式生效,這也將不可避免地帶來對人民幣的可觀再平衡或對沖需求,盡管這同樣可能是漸進的。

Contrary to common perceptions — given that the aggregate SDR assets of the central banks in the IMF member states (around $280bn) have an equal amount of SDR liabilities — the renminbi’s addition to the SDR basket would not actually trigger a system-wide hedging demand, though some countries that are long or short on SDR may hedge their positions. 和普遍看法相左——考慮到IMF成員國央行的總SDR資產(約為2800億美元)伴隨著相同數額的總SDR負債——人民幣被納入SDR貨幣籃子并不會引發系統性的對沖需求,盡管有些對SDR做多或做空的國家或許要對其持有頭寸進行對沖。

Instead, by far the most significant direct effect from the RMB’s inclusion on currency flows would come from multilateral institutions. The IMF’s own investment account and investment by its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust would need to be rebalanced to include the renminbi. 相反,人民幣“入籃”對貨幣流動最顯著的直接影響將來自于多邊機構。IMF自身的投資賬戶,及其減貧和發展信托(PRGT)的投資,都需要進行再平衡以納入人民幣。

Likewise, institutions such as the Bank of International Settlements, the African Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, the Arab Monetary Fund and the International Fund for Agricultural Development have SDR-denominated balance sheets, which would need to be rebalanced. 同樣的,國際清算銀行(BIS)、非洲開發銀行(African Development Bank)、伊斯蘭開發銀行(Islamic Development Bank)、阿拉伯貨幣基金組織(Arab Monetary Fund)、國際農業發展基金(International Fund for Agricultural Development)等擁有以SDR計價的資產負債表的組織,都需要進行再平衡。

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank would also be affected as some of their facilities for the world’s poorest countries are denominated in SDR. The combined size of these multilateral institutions’ SDR denominated balance sheets is around $600bn, so the resulting renminbi flows could be more than $80bn assuming existing SDR weighting methodology. 世界銀行(World Bank)和亞洲開發銀行(ADB)也會受到影響,因為它們為世界最貧困國家提供的一些安排以SDR計價。這些多邊組織以SDR計價的資產負債表總規模大約為6000億美元,因此如果采用現有的SDR權重計算方法,由此帶來的人民幣流動將超過800億美元。

The renminbi’s weight in the SDR basket has been the only big issue left for the IMF executive board to decide. Recent suggestions by some stakeholders that using existing methodology could leave the renminbi with too big a share of the basket (at around 14 per cent, far greater than that of the pound and the yen) will hopefully have been ignored the Board. 人民幣在SDR貨幣籃子中的權重是IMF執行董事會需要決定的最后一個重大問題(IMF最新宣布的人民幣權重是10.92%——譯注)。一些股東最近提出,如果使用現有算法,人民幣在SDR貨幣籃子中的權重可能會過大(大約為14%,遠超英鎊和日元),但IMF董事會很可能會忽略這樣的說法。

While the current weighting formula may not be ideal, the renminbi and the markets are fully ready to handle the direct implications of the SDR inclusion with the existing weighting methodology. 盡管目前的權重計算公式或許不理想,但人民幣和市場都已經完全準備好應對人民幣以目前的權重算法加入SDR籃子的直接影響。

The writer is managing director and head of central banks and sovereign wealth funds at Standard Chartered Bank. He previously worked for the IMF and the central banks of New Zealand and Finland. 本文作者是渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)央行和主權財富基金業務主管和董事總經理,曾任職于國際貨幣基金組織、新西蘭央行和芬蘭央行