希尼爾翻譯公司（www.eacrwc.tw）2015年12月10日了解到：If the prospect of the
Chinese renminbi’s entry into the basket of currencies composing the
special drawing right was supposed to insulate it from the whims of
speculation, no one appears to have told the foreign exchange traders.
Yesterday, after data showed Chinese exports in November sharply
lower over the year on the back of weak external demand, the renminbi
dropped to its lowest level in four years. Earlier this week, it emerged
that Chinese official foreign exchange reserves registered their
third-largest monthly decline on record in November.
Beijing is discovering that symbolic achievements such as
admission to the SDR basket are less important than having a sustainable
growth model. China is trying to effect a hugely difficult balancing act
between short-term growth and long-term stability. In the face of
capital outflows and downward pressure on the currency, it must steer an
uneasy course between the two.
Having long ago announced its intention to shift from an economy
led by investment and exports to one driven by domestic and particularly
consumer demand, China has been overtaken by events. A slowdown in
global export demand, and a general sell-off of emerging market
currencies, have assisted the first goal, on a cyclical rather than a
structural basis. But they have done little to help the second leg of
growth in consumer demand and domestic services.
In August, in response to pressure on the currency, China allowed
the renminbi to fall and announced that henceforth it would follow a
more market-determined pattern. To the extent that it was a true move
towards a freely floating currency, this was a decision in the right
direction. However, it would have been much better taken in calmer
times, looking like principle rather than expediency. Since then, the
renminbi has continued to operate in an atmosphere of uncertainty over
how far the natural pressures of buying and selling will be allowed to
There is some good news. First, whatever excitable currency
warriors might think, China is clearly not embarking on a deliberate
competitive devaluation to boost manufacturing exports. A fall in the
currency accompanied by a rapid decline in foreign exchange reserves is
evidence of policymakers trying to manage a devaluation rather than
There is also tentative evidence that domestic demand may be
responding to the multiple cuts in interest rates and reductions in
banks’ reserve requirement ratios that the People’s Bank of China has
implemented. Although imports dropped by 8.7 per cent in dollar terms
last month on a year earlier, the fall was smaller than expected,
suggesting stronger demand sucking in goods from abroad.
Beijing had better hope that such signs of life continue. China
is in an unenviable position, albeit one largely of its own making.
Having unbalanced its own economy for decades while external conditions
— buoyant demand and rapid capital inflows — were supportive, it is
attempting to reverse that in a much more unfavourable environment. Its
next immediate challenge is to manage the aftermath of the US Federal
Reserve’s decision on interest rates next week, especially if, as
markets expect, borrowing costs are raised.
This week’s news was not terrible for China: it shows an economy
in awkward transition with policymakers trying to cushion the blow. Yet
with its room for manoeuvre reduced by weak global demand and skittish
investors, Beijing will need luck as well as judgment to continue the