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歐洲各大金融中心博弈人民幣(中英雙語)

青島希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)整理發布2015-12-07

希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)2015年12月7日了解到:10月,中國人民銀行駐歐洲首席代表包明友在倫敦發表了演講。在演講接近高潮的時候,他告訴在場的商界領袖,中國的金融業不僅需要適應變化,還要發揮領導作用。Building up to the climax of a speech in London in October, Bao Mingyou, the People’s Bank of China’s chief representative in Europe, told his audience of business leaders his country’s financial sector needed not only to adapt, but to take the lead.

“The process of renminbi liberalisation will be pushed ahead,” he said, before listing a series of financial reforms already undertaken — on renminbi rates and on the issuing of certificates of deposits and lending rates, among others. “人民幣自由化的的進程將繼續推進,”他表示。之后他列舉了一系列已經著手進行的金融改革,涉及人民幣匯率、放開存貸款利率管制等方面。

Then came the climax. “This is the time for you to be more engaged and you will benefit in the long run,” he finished. 隨后就是這次演講的高潮部分。“各位是時候更多地參與進來,從長遠看,你將會從中受益,”他總結道。

This was no wake-up call for London. Of all the world’s financial centres, London has positioned itself strongly to capitalise on China’s increasing inclination towards financial reform. Just to ram home the message, the red carpet was well and truly rolled out for President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the UK in October. 對倫敦來說,這樣的提醒并無必要。在世界各大金融中心中,倫敦一直堅定地尋求充分利用中國日漸增強的金融改革意識。為了強化這一訊息,英國十分隆重地接待了10月到訪的中國國家主席習近平。

On top of the requisite trade and investment deals that accompany such trips, China formally applied to become a member of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which the UK welcomed. It also chose London as the first financial centre outside China to issue its sovereign debt. 除了這類訪問通常伴隨的貿易和投資協議以外,中國還正式申請加入歐洲復興開發銀行(EBRD),英國對此表示歡迎。中國還選擇倫敦作為首個發行人民幣主權債券的海外金融中心。

That move would increase liquidity in London’s renminbi bond market, says City of London policy chairman Mark Boleat, as well as help develop a pricing benchmark and attract other high-rated issuances. 倫敦金融城(City of London)政策與資源委員會主席包墨凱(Mark Boleat)表示,此舉將增強倫敦人民幣債券市場的流動性,還有助于制定定價基準,吸引其他高信用評級證券在倫敦發行。

London is fast becoming an outpost of the Chinese financial system. Chinese banks have become agents for renminbi clearing payments in London and a host of Chinese financial houses have taken up membership of the London Stock Exchange. The Agricultural Bank of China has issued green bonds in London. 倫敦正迅速成為中國金融體系的前哨。一些中資銀行已成為倫敦的人民幣清算支付代理機構,一些中國金融機構也成為了倫敦證券交易所(LSE)的會員。中國農業銀行(ABC)在倫敦發行了綠色債券。

As UK Treasury official Katharine Braddick said: “The UK financial centre has tremendous influence.” 正如英國財政部(UK Treasury)官員凱瑟琳?布拉迪克(Katharine Braddick)所說的:“英國的金融中心擁有巨大的影響力。”

The competition for Chinese investment in Europe is fierce, says André Loesekrug-Pietri, founder of A Capital, the private equity fund management company. The US had its own red carpet visit from President Xi in September. 私募股權基金管理公司A Capital的創始人龍德望(André Loesekrug-Pietri)表示,在歐洲,爭奪中國投資的競爭十分激烈。

European countries need to compete for “the first Rmb bond, the Rmb clearing capital, the listing place for Chinese firms, the best friend of this, the first to officially recognise that, etc,” says Mr Loesekrug-Pietri. 歐洲各國需要爭奪“首只人民幣債券、人民幣清算之都、中國企業的上市地、這方面的最友好關系、那方面的首個官方認可等等,”龍德望說。

But they must co-ordinate policies, markets and wealth to show the Chinese that Europe is a serious partner, he says. 但他表示,歐洲國家必須協調政策、市場和財富,以向中方表明,歐洲是一個嚴肅的合作伙伴。

China has no particular preference among potential global financial partners. All are relevant, as it seeks to develop the renminbi and build its liquidity. The renminbi may have climbed from 20th most used currency three years ago to fourth, overtaking the yen in the process, according to Swift, the payments services provider. But it is still dwarfed in size by the dollar and the euro. 中國對潛在的全球金融合作伙伴沒有特別的偏好。在尋求發展人民幣,建立人民幣流動性的過程中,所有伙伴都是相關的。根據支付服務提供商——環球銀行金融電信協會(SWIFT)的數據,人民幣已從3年前第20位最常用貨幣攀升至第4大最常用貨幣,超過日元。但美元和歐元的使用量仍然讓人民幣相形見絀。

London has inbuilt advantages to benefit from China’s thirst for renminbi business — it straddles time-zones from Asia to the Americas and is the centre of the global foreign exchange market. 倫敦擁有獲益于中國對人民幣業務渴求的固有優勢——英國的時區處于亞洲和美洲之間,倫敦還是全球外匯市場的中心。

Hence, China is expected to extend its FX trading hours for the onshore renminbi to 11pm to overlap with European trading times. 因此,預計中國將把在岸人民幣市場外匯交易時段延長至晚上11點,以和歐洲的交易時段重疊。

But for China to become the fifth member of the elite Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies and acquire reserve currency status, it has had to persuade global financial markets its reforms are serious and long-lasting. 但是,為成為精英的特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子的第5名成員,獲得儲備貨幣的身份,近年中國不得不說服全球金融市場相信,中國的改革是嚴肅和長期性的。

That persuasion game is far from over. “If they start to slow down on the reform process, people start to lose interest,” says Paul Mackel, who heads emerging markets FX research for HSBC. 這一說服任務還遠未完成。“一旦中國開始放緩改革進程,人們就會失去興趣,”匯豐(HSBC)新興市場外匯研究部門主管保羅?梅克爾(Paul Mackel)表示。

Reforms will keep coming. China last month launched a cross-border system for clearing renminbi payments to speed up and clarify a laborious process. 改革措施還將繼續出臺。中國上月啟動了人民幣跨境支付系統,以加快和理順耗時耗力的人民幣支付清算過程。

SDR admission is largely symbolic, says Mr Mackel. “It’s a coming of age for the currency, an acknowledgment that the Chinese authorities have done a lot of reform. But it’s probably a quality of assurance to stay on the reform path.” 梅克爾表示,人民幣加入SDR基本上只具有象征意義。“這標志著人民幣走向成熟,是對中國當局

But it is also a question of confidence. The market clearly took fright at the August 11 policy shift from the PBoC which changed the way it calculates the daily RMB rate-setting band, and resulted in a dramatic fall in the currency. 采取大量改革舉措的認可。但這很可能也是鼓勵中國繼續走改革道路的質量保證。”

That has subsequently led the market to give its full attention to the PBoC. Since that marked August depreciation, the renminbi has largely stayed in the same trading band, suggesting the PBoC has been seeking a period of calm while the International Monetary Fund deliberates over China’s SDR application. 但這也是一個信心問題。市場明顯因為中國央行8月11日的政策轉變而受到驚嚇。那天中國央行決定改變人民幣匯率中間價報價機制,致使人民幣戲劇性走低。

Does a positive SDR outcome for China from the IMF presage a resumption of renminbi depreciation? 這使市場密切關注中國央行。自8月顯著貶值后,人民幣基本處于同一個交易區間,似乎表明中國央行試圖在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)考慮中國加入SDR的申請時保持一段平靜期。

Many analysts assume the currency will weaken next year. “SDR is not going to stop that,” says Mr Mackel. “A period of calm will be temporary, and if anything we will be going back to the fundamental direction of the exchange rate — and that’s for the currency to weaken against the dollar.” 人民幣成功加入SDR是否預示著人民幣將再次開始貶值?

If China is to get the world to trade more in the renminbi, it may need the market to become used not just to a declining currency but one that moves around more frequently. 許多分析師認為,人民幣明年將走軟。“加入SDR也無法阻止這一趨勢,”梅克爾說,“一段時間的平靜期是暫時的,如果說有什么改變的話,我們將回歸匯率的根本走勢——也就是人民幣相對于美元走軟。”

One step at a time. The world’s financial markets may be gearing up for a more engaged renminbi, but is not yet ready for a volatile one. 如果中國要讓世界更多地使用人民幣進行貿易,中國或許不僅需要市場習慣人民幣走軟,還需要市場習慣人民幣更加頻繁的波動。

一步一步來。世界金融市場或許在準備迎接人民幣的更大參與,但還沒有準備好應對更加動蕩的人民幣。青島翻譯公司

 

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