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分析:中國成非洲基建領域最大投資者(中英雙語)

青島希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)整理發布2015-12-07

希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)2015年12月7日了解到:一份報告顯示,有政府背景的開發融資在非洲基礎設施融資中占到80%;在投資者榜單上,中國排在首位。State-run development finance is behind 80 per cent of infrastructure funding in Africa, with China heading the list of investors, according to a report.

Despite steady growth in private sector funding in the past decade, the grip of the public sector could tighten further, with the Export-Import Bank of China having pledged $1tn to Africa in the coming decade, according to analysis by Baker & McKenzie, a law firm, and the Economist Corporate Network. 貝克?麥堅時國際律師事務所(Baker & McKenzie)和經濟學人企業組織(Economist Corporate Network)的分析表明,盡管過去十年中私人部門融資在穩步增加,但鑒于中國進出口銀行(Export-Import Bank of China)承諾未來十年為非洲提供1萬億美元融資,公共部門的影響力可能會進一步加大。

The Chinese lender’s pledge, if it materialises, would dwarf the investment flows currently provided by all public and private bodies globally. 這家中國貸款機構的1萬億美元融資承諾如果兌現的話,將令目前全球范圍內所有公共和私人機構提供的對非投資總額相形見絀。

Chinese institutions are already the largest single source of funds for African infrastructure, accounting for $13.4bn in 2013, the most recent year for which data are available, according to the report, Spanning Africa’s Infrastructure Gap, to be published on Monday. 這份名為《跨越非洲基礎設施差距》(Spanning Africa’s Infrastructure Gap)的新報告稱,中國機構已經是非洲基礎設施領域最大的資金來源,在可查到數據的最近年份2013年提供了134億美元資金。

But that could yet prove a drop in the ocean. Zhao Changhui, chief country risk analyst at the Export-Import Bank of China, told a conference in 2013 that his country would invest $1tn in the continent in the coming decade. 但是,這還可能只是九牛一毛。2013年,中國進出口銀行首席國家風險分析師趙昌會在一次會議上表示,未來十年中國在非洲的投資有可能達到1萬億美元。

Mr Zhao reiterated that commitment when questioned by Herman Warren, Africa chief economist for the Economist Corporate Network and author of the report. 在被經濟學人企業組織非洲首席經濟學家、上述報告作者赫爾曼?沃倫(Herman Warren)問到時,趙昌會重申了上述說法。

In particular, Mr Zhao said that as a result of China’s “one belt, one road” initiative, east African countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania were starting to receive more attention. Mr Zhao could not be reached by the Financial Times for confirmation.

Calvin Walker, global head of project finance at Baker & McKenzie, said “there is not a lot of visibility on these numbers, but Chinese investment is clearly significantly disproportionately large compared to the money coming in from other countries.” 尤其是,趙昌會表示,由于中國實施“一帶一路”戰略,埃塞俄比亞、肯尼亞和坦桑尼亞等東非國家已開始受到更多關注。英國《金融時報》記者無法聯系到趙昌會進行核實。

Overall, the report found that development capital funding for African infrastructure totalled about $328bn between 2009 and 2014, some $54bn a year. 貝克?麥堅時的全球項目融資主管卡爾文?沃克(Calvin Walker)表示,“這些金額的透明度不太高,但與從其他國家流進的資金相比,中國的投資額明顯特別高。”

However, commercial lending is estimated to account for only an additional $9bn-$12bn a year, well below the projected $23bn cost of Crossrail, a single transport project in London. 該報告發現,2009年至2014年期間,非洲基礎設施領域的開發資本融資總額為3280億美元,每年約為540億美元。

In total, the annual flows are markedly below the $90bn a year of infrastructure investment that the World Bank estimated in 2009 was required in sub-Saharan Africa alone. 然而,每年商業貸款估計僅在90億至110億美元之間,遠遠低于倫敦一個交通項目——橫貫鐵路(Crossrail)項目的預計成本(230億美元)。

“Put bluntly, Africa cannot fulfil its economic potential without more and better infrastructure, particularly in the power, transport, and water and sanitation sectors,” said Gary Senior, chair of Baker & McKenzie in the region. “This needs funding one way or another for the ‘Africa rising’ growth narrative to come to fruition.” 世界銀行(World Bank)在2009年估計,僅撒哈拉以南非洲地區每年就需要900億美元的基礎設施投資。目前,非洲每年的基礎設施投資遠遠低于這個數字。

The World Bank has estimated that Africa’s infrastructure gap reduces productivity by 40 per cent, cutting economic growth by 2 percentage points a year. “坦率講,要是沒有更多更好的基礎設施,尤其是電力、交通、水力和衛生領域,非洲就無法實現經濟潛力,”貝克?麥堅時非洲區主席加里?西尼爾(Gary Senior)說。“這就需要某種形式的融資,以使‘非洲崛起’之說變成現實。”

Analysis of 2013 suggests that flows from development institutions that year were $44bn, with the private sector contributing an additional $9bn. 世界銀行估計,非洲落后的基礎設施使生產率減少了40%,每年把經濟增長率拉低了2個百分點。

Asia accounted for the lion’s share of the public money, some $15.9bn, with China accounting for $13.4bn of this, well ahead of Japan, the next largest investor, at $1.5bn. Multilateral development banks, the Americas and Europe also invested significant sums, ahead of the Middle East and Africa’s own regional development banks. 對2013年的分析顯示,當年來自開發機構的資金為440億美元,私人部門則另外貢獻了90億美元。

Between 2009 and 2014, two-thirds of investment by development finance institutions was directed to the power and transportation sectors, which received $37.1bn and $24.6bn respectively, ahead of the resources sector, water and sanitation, urban development and communications. 在流入非洲基礎設施領域的公共資金中,來自亞洲的資金占了大頭,約為159億美元。其中,中國為134億美元,遠高于第二大投資國日本的15億美元。多邊開發銀行、美洲和歐洲的投資額也很高,超過中東以及非洲自己的地區開發銀行。

However, Chinese investment has been weighted towards transport facilities such as rail lines, roads, airports and seaports, as well as mineral extraction and production.

South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco, Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana have received more than 70 per cent of development finance institution funding since 2009. 2009年至2014年期間,開發融資機構對非投資的三分之二流向了電力和交通行業——分別為371億美元和246億美元——高于資源行業、水力和衛生、城市開發和通信。

Marc Fèvre, a Baker & McKenzie partner focused on project development and financing, argued there was a “huge amount” of commercial, private sector money earmarked for African infrastructure, but that investors such as private equity groups “can’t find projects that meet their expectations”. 然而,中國側重投資于鐵路、公路、機場和港口等交通設施,以及礦石開采與生產。

“We are increasingly seeing interest from private equity groups but the returns are not commensurate with the risk. There are not enough bankable projects,” added Mr Walker. 自2009年以來,在開發融資機構提供的融資中,南非、埃及、尼日利亞、摩洛哥、肯尼亞、埃塞俄比亞和加納合計吸納了70%以上。

Moreover, many private groups are only willing to invest alongside development finance institutions, which are often seen as both more experienced and more likely to be consulted if a project runs into trouble. 貝克?麥堅時主管項目開發與融資的合伙人馬克?費夫爾(Marc Fèvre)稱,“數額巨大”的商業性的私人部門資金有意投向非洲基金設施領域,但諸如私人股本集團之類的投資者“找不到符合他們預期的項目”。

“There is a view that having a DFI involved helps,” says Mr Walker. “It opens the door to the possibility of government-to-government communication. “我們越來越多地看到私人股本集團表現出興趣,但回報跟風險不相匹配。能獲利的項目并不多,”沃克補充道。

“Even if [investing alongside a DFI] is not formal political risk insurance cover, it provides a level of comfort that the government is not going to pull the plug.” 此外,許多私人集團只愿意與開發融資機構一起投資。人們通常認為后者經驗更豐富,如果項目遇到困難,也更有可能向它們咨詢情況。

Mr Walker believed private funding would rise once investors have gained confidence and understanding from successfully completing projects alongside DFIs. “有種觀點認為,有開發融資機構參與會更好,”沃克說。“這類機構為政府間溝通的可能性打開了大門。”

However, the rise of China could throw a spanner in the works. While most western DFIs seek out private investors, as well as other DFIs, to work alongside them, the Chinese do not favour this approach. “即使(與開發融資機構一起投資)不能為化解政治風險提供正式的保障,這也多少讓人感到放心,覺得政府不會撤出。”

The report quotes Mr Zhao as saying: “We do hope that we will have more opportunities to work with other institutions, private and other development agencies. But, in the real sense, it’s a very tough job. 沃克認為,一旦投資者與開發融資機構一起成功完成項目,從中獲得經驗和信心,私人投資將會增加。

“Each institution will have its own philosophy and conditions for financing; therefore, the negotiations will be very lengthy, documentation very tedious, and the time to really find someone to make a deal workable will be unreasonably long. 然而,中國崛起可能會帶來變數。大多數西方開發融資機構尋求私人投資者以及其他同行進行合作,但中方不喜歡這種方式。

“It may sound good, but it’s not good in the real world. It’s always better [for us] to go alone. We have the financial resources for that. We are open to co-operation, but it happens very little.” 前述報告援引了趙昌會的話說:“我們確實希望有更多機會跟其他機構、私人以及其他開發機構合作。但說真的,這是一件很棘手的事。”

“每家機構在提供融資方面都有自己的原則和條件;因此,協商起來曠日持久,文件冗長乏味,真正可以找到某家機構達成可行協議的時間太長了。”

“聽起來或許還不錯,但實際上并非那樣。(對我們而言)單獨行動更好。我們有財力這么做。我們對合作持開放態度,但合作非常少。”

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