development finance is behind 80 per cent of infrastructure funding in
Africa, with China heading the list of investors, according to a report.
Despite steady growth in private sector funding in the past
decade, the grip of the public sector could tighten further, with the
Export-Import Bank of China having pledged $1tn to Africa in the coming
decade, according to analysis by Baker & McKenzie, a law firm, and the
Economist Corporate Network. 貝克?麥堅時國際律師事務所(Baker &
Network)的分析表明，盡管過去十年中私人部門融資在穩步增加，但鑒于中國進出口銀行(Export-Import Bank of
The Chinese lender’s pledge, if it materialises, would dwarf the
investment flows currently provided by all public and private bodies
Chinese institutions are already the largest single source of
funds for African infrastructure, accounting for $13.4bn in 2013, the
most recent year for which data are available, according to the report,
Spanning Africa’s Infrastructure Gap, to be published on Monday.
這份名為《跨越非洲基礎設施差距》(Spanning Africa’s Infrastructure
But that could yet prove a drop in the ocean. Zhao Changhui,
chief country risk analyst at the Export-Import Bank of China, told a
conference in 2013 that his country would invest $1tn in the continent
in the coming decade.
Mr Zhao reiterated that commitment when questioned by Herman
Warren, Africa chief economist for the Economist Corporate Network and
author of the report. 在被經濟學人企業組織非洲首席經濟學家、上述報告作者赫爾曼?沃倫(Herman
In particular, Mr Zhao said that as a result of China’s “one
belt, one road” initiative, east African countries such as Ethiopia,
Kenya and Tanzania were starting to receive more attention. Mr Zhao
could not be reached by the Financial Times for confirmation.
Calvin Walker, global head of project finance at Baker &
McKenzie, said “there is not a lot of visibility on these numbers, but
Chinese investment is clearly significantly disproportionately large
compared to the money coming in from other countries.”
Overall, the report found that development capital funding for
African infrastructure totalled about $328bn between 2009 and 2014, some
$54bn a year. 貝克?麥堅時的全球項目融資主管卡爾文?沃克(Calvin
However, commercial lending is estimated to account for only an
additional $9bn-$12bn a year, well below the projected $23bn cost of
Crossrail, a single transport project in London.
In total, the annual flows are markedly below the $90bn a year of
infrastructure investment that the World Bank estimated in 2009 was
required in sub-Saharan Africa alone.
“Put bluntly, Africa cannot fulfil its economic potential without
more and better infrastructure, particularly in the power, transport,
and water and sanitation sectors,” said Gary Senior, chair of Baker &
McKenzie in the region. “This needs funding one way or another for the
‘Africa rising’ growth narrative to come to fruition.” 世界銀行(World
The World Bank has estimated that Africa’s infrastructure gap
reduces productivity by 40 per cent, cutting economic growth by 2
percentage points a year.
Analysis of 2013 suggests that flows from development
institutions that year were $44bn, with the private sector contributing
an additional $9bn. 世界銀行估計，非洲落后的基礎設施使生產率減少了40%，每年把經濟增長率拉低了2個百分點。
Asia accounted for the lion’s share of the public money, some
$15.9bn, with China accounting for $13.4bn of this, well ahead of Japan,
the next largest investor, at $1.5bn. Multilateral development banks,
the Americas and Europe also invested significant sums, ahead of the
Middle East and Africa’s own regional development banks.
Between 2009 and 2014, two-thirds of investment by development
finance institutions was directed to the power and transportation
sectors, which received $37.1bn and $24.6bn respectively, ahead of the
resources sector, water and sanitation, urban development and
However, Chinese investment has been weighted towards transport
facilities such as rail lines, roads, airports and seaports, as well as
mineral extraction and production.
South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco, Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana
have received more than 70 per cent of development finance institution
funding since 2009.
Marc Fèvre, a Baker & McKenzie partner focused on project
development and financing, argued there was a “huge amount” of
commercial, private sector money earmarked for African infrastructure,
but that investors such as private equity groups “can’t find projects
that meet their expectations”. 然而，中國側重投資于鐵路、公路、機場和港口等交通設施，以及礦石開采與生產。
“We are increasingly seeing interest from private equity groups
but the returns are not commensurate with the risk. There are not enough
bankable projects,” added Mr Walker.
Moreover, many private groups are only willing to invest
alongside development finance institutions, which are often seen as both
more experienced and more likely to be consulted if a project runs into
trouble. 貝克?麥堅時主管項目開發與融資的合伙人馬克?費夫爾(Marc Fèvre)稱，“數額巨大”的商業性的私人部門資金有意投向非洲基金設施領域，但諸如私人股本集團之類的投資者“找不到符合他們預期的項目”。
“There is a view that having a DFI involved helps,” says Mr
Walker. “It opens the door to the possibility of
“Even if [investing alongside a DFI] is not formal political risk
insurance cover, it provides a level of comfort that the government is
not going to pull the plug.”
Mr Walker believed private funding would rise once investors have
gained confidence and understanding from successfully completing
projects alongside DFIs.
However, the rise of China could throw a spanner in the works.
While most western DFIs seek out private investors, as well as other
DFIs, to work alongside them, the Chinese do not favour this approach.
The report quotes Mr Zhao as saying: “We do hope that we will
have more opportunities to work with other institutions, private and
other development agencies. But, in the real sense, it’s a very tough
“Each institution will have its own philosophy and conditions for
financing; therefore, the negotiations will be very lengthy,
documentation very tedious, and the time to really find someone to make
a deal workable will be unreasonably long.
“It may sound good, but it’s not good in the real world. It’s
always better [for us] to go alone. We have the financial resources for
that. We are open to co-operation, but it happens very little.”