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希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)2015年11月12日了解到:歷史學家阿諾德?湯因比(Arnold Toynbee)喜歡將美國描述為一個非常小的屋子里的一只友善大狗:每次搖動尾巴的時候都會撞翻椅子。The historian Arnold Toynbee liked to characterise the US as a large, friendly dog in a very small room: every time it wagged its tail, it knocked over a chair.

Today he might have said the same of China (though friendly is not the adjective that springs immediately to mind). Trade, investment and financial linkages between China and the rest of the world have intensified dramatically, so everyone is hurt when chairs in the Chinese economy are knocked around. 湯因比如果現在還在世的話,也可能對中國做出同樣的描述,盡管友善這個形容詞不會馬上躍入腦海。中國與全球其他地區的貿易、投資和金融聯系顯著加深,因此當中國經濟中的“椅子”被撞翻的時候,所有人都會受到傷害。

The stock market plunge was bruising evidence of the extent of economic interdependence. On the face of it, financial linkages between China and the rest of the world are loose. The financial sector is not outward-looking, and the capital account has yet to be fully liberalised. While China is the leading destination for foreign direct investment flows, it accounts for less than 5 per cent of the total stock of inward FDI. 中國股市暴跌殘酷揭示出這種經濟上相互依存的程度。表面看來,中國與全球其他地區的金融聯系是松散的。中國金融行業并未著眼海外,資本賬戶還沒有完全放開。盡管中國是外國直接投資(FDI)的主要目的地,但它在全球FDI流入存量中所占的比例不到5%。

Yet the shock after this summer’s stocks correction and the adjustment in the currency peg was far more severe than these linkages appeared to imply. For most stock markets, the third quarter was the worst since 2008. 然而,在今年夏季中國股市暴跌以及調整人民幣盯住美元匯率制度之后,全球市場受到的震動遠比上述聯系表面上體現出的嚴重得多。對大多數股市來說,今年第三季度的表現是2008年以來最糟糕的。

China-induced volatility revealed a vulnerability in Japan, which paid a price for being the most liquid Asia market. Fund managers dumped Japan equities to fund redemptions as investors responded to the China scare and related panic in emerging markets by pulling out money. 中國引發的波動揭示出日本的脆弱性,身為亞洲流動性最強的市場,日本為之付出了代價。投資者紛紛贖回資金來應對中國市場暴跌以及新興市場的恐慌,基金經理們不得不大舉拋售日本股票以應對贖回潮。

For emerging markets, trade linkages have been the most toxic factor. The scope for trouble can be seen in the World Bank’s estimates for China demand for commodities. These show China accounting for half of demand for metals such as aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc in 2014 and for most of the rise in demand for these metals since 2000. It was responsible for 12 per cent of crude demand in 2014 and half of coal consumption. The bank estimates that about 80 per cent of the increase in imports of soya beans, coffee and cotton since 2000 is accounted for by China. 對新興市場來說,這種貿易聯系是造成傷害最大的因素。這種麻煩有多大,可以看一看世界銀行(World Bank)對中國對大宗商品需求的估計。這些估計表明,中國在2014年占到鋁、銅、鎳和鋅等金屬需求的一半,而且自2000年以來這些金屬需求的增長大多也歸于中國。中國還在2014年占到原油需求的12%,以及煤炭消費量的一半。世行估計,大豆、咖啡以及棉花自2000年以來的進口增長有80%歸于中國。

Such damage is not confined to emerging markets. The slowdown in China has damped demand in Japan and Korea because supply chains are integrated across East and Southeast Asia. And China provides an important part of the explanation for the sharp slowdown in global trade. 此類破壞不僅僅局限于新興市場。中國經濟放緩打壓了日本和韓國的需求,因為東亞和東南亞的供應鏈已經一體化。中國是全球貿易急劇放緩的重要因素。

The decline in China’s export volume growth, which reflects an overvalued exchange rate and weak external demand, is hitting imports because of the high import content of China exports. In its latest Economic Outlook, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reckons that this could account for about half of the estimated slowdown in China import volume growth from 7 per cent in 2014 to probably just under 2 per cent in 2015. This is a big factor in declining import volumes in the non-OECD economies, which substantially explains the weakness of global trade this year. 中國出口額增長減緩,這反映出匯率高估和外部需求疲弱,而由于中國出口商品中的進口部件比例很高,這正在影響進口。經合組織(OECD)在其最新一期《經濟展望》(Economic Outlook)中估計,中國進口額增速將會從2014年的7%降至2015年的可能不到2%,其中大約一半的降幅源自于此。這是非經合組織經濟體進口額下降的主要因素——它在很大程度上解釋了今年全球貿易疲弱的原因。

Trade linkages understate the extent of the advanced economies’ exposure to the China slowdown because of direct sales by foreign affiliates of multinationals, the OECD points out. Sales by US affiliates in China amounted to $364bn in 2013, more than twice the value of bilateral exports to China from the US. Sales of subsidiaries of Japan manufacturers in China were almost double Japanese merchandise exports to China. So weaker demand growth in China hits revenues, profits and share prices of foreign multinationals. 經合組織指出,由于跨國企業外國分支機構的直接銷售,若單看貿易,會低估發達經濟體受中國經濟放緩影響的程度。美國在華分支機構的銷售在2013年達到3640億美元,是美國對華雙邊貿易出口額的兩倍多。日本制造商在華分支機構的銷售幾乎是日本對華商品出口額的兩倍。因此中國需求增長變弱打擊了外國跨國企業的收入、利潤和股價。

In one sense these negative spillovers are good news. They reflect the rebalancing of the Chinese economy: consumption is becoming a more important source of growth than investment. The import intensity of consumption and service sector activity is less than that of investment. 就某種意義來說,這些負面的溢出效應是好消息。它們反映出中國經濟正在進行再平衡:消費正成為比投資更為重要的增長源泉。消費和服務部門活動的進口強度低于投資活動。

That said, the Chinese are responding to the slowdown with fiscal pump-priming equivalent to a quarter of the fiscal expansion introduced in 2009 to counteract the global financial crisis. In the short run, that implies a little relief for emerging markets, some of which are beginning to look oversold. But it is also a step backwards in China’s attempt to escape from a dysfunctional model based on investment and export-led growth that results in a grotesquely inefficient allocation of capital. 話雖如此,中國仍然正在為應對經濟放緩而推出財政刺激措施,規模相當于2009年為抵御全球金融危機而出臺的財政擴張舉措的四分之一。短期而言,這意味著新興市場可以稍微緩一口氣,一些新興市場資產開始看上去被超賣了。但這也是中國擺脫失靈增長模式努力的倒退——以投資和出口為導向的增長模式導致中國在資本配置方面極其低效。