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新興市場初現企穩跡象(中英雙語)

青島希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)整理發布2015-11-07

希尼爾翻譯公司(www.eacrwc.tw)2015年11月7日了解到: 研究公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)最近使用其專有的“GDP增長追蹤器”的數據表明,今年8月新興市場增長率達到3%,高于7月的2.8%。
Capital Economics, the research firm, used its proprietary “GDP growth tracker” data this week to show that emerging market growth rose to 3 per cent in August, up from 2.8 per cent in July.

The tracker shows a close correlation with subsequent official EM GDP data over time. 傳統上,該追蹤器與隨后陸續發布的新興市場官方GDP數據有著密切的關聯。

“There is no sign in recent months’ data of the collapse in growth that many have been talking about,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics in a report.

“Indeed, growth appears to have been fairly stable. If anything, conditions now seem to be improving.” 凱投宏觀首席亞洲經濟學家馬克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在一篇報告中表示:“與許多人談論的不一樣,最近幾個月的數據沒有顯示出增長崩潰的任何跡象。”

The growth tracker data show that the pace of expansion in three key EM regions — emerging Europe, emerging Asia and Latin America — is showing signs of stabilisation. “實際上,增長似乎相當穩定。如果說有什么變化,那就是現在的情況似乎有所改善。”

Mr Williams says this shift derives from some significant changes in the EM firmament. 增長追蹤器的數據顯示,新興歐洲、新興亞洲和拉丁美洲這3個主要新興市場地區的經濟擴張步伐都顯示出企穩跡象。

The recession in Russia appears to be moderating, while Latin America seems to have passed a trough and China’s growth has also stabilised, he argues. 威廉姆斯表示,這種轉變源于新興市場宏觀環境的一些重大變化。

Emerging Europe steadies 他辯稱,俄羅斯經濟衰退似乎在趨緩,同時拉美似乎走出了低谷,而中國的增長也在企穩。

Economic Sentiment Indicators for the month of October, released by the European Commission on Thursday, showed an improvement in seven among nine central and eastern European countries covered. 新興歐洲企穩

Only the Czech Republic and Hungary — where economic sentiment remained robust — showed a slight deterioration in optimism in the month compared with September. 歐盟委員會(European Commission)上周四發布的10月“經濟情緒指標”顯示,在該指標涵蓋的9個中、東歐國家里,有7個國家的經濟情緒出現改善。

Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia all showed an improvement in sentiment, bringing the aggregate level to its highest point since September 2008. 只有捷克和匈牙利這兩個之前經濟情緒保持樂觀的國家的樂觀情緒與9月相比稍有減退。

The indicators, which accurately portrayed the 2008-09 crisis and subsequent recovery, are arrived at by surveying representatives of the manufacturing, services, retail and construction industries, as well as consumers. 羅馬比亞、波蘭、斯洛伐克、保加利亞、拉脫維亞、立陶宛和愛沙尼亞全都顯示情緒出現改善,整體水平達到2008年9月以來的最高點。

The Capital Economics GDP tracker for emerging Europe showed a contraction of 1.4 per cent in August, improving on the 1.8 per cent fall in both July and June. Much of this improvement derives from a moderation in Russia’s recession, the firm said. 這些指標曾準確描述2008年至2009年的經濟危機以及隨后的復蘇,它們是在對制造業、服務業、零售業和建筑業代表以及消費者進行調查之后得出的。

Others, though, are less sanguine on Russia. 凱投宏觀的新興歐洲GDP追蹤器顯示,今年8月該地區經濟收縮1.4%,較7月和6月1.8%的收縮幅度有所好轉。該公司表示,這種改善在很大程度上源于俄羅斯衰退趨緩。

Dmitri Petrov, an analyst at Nomura, cast doubt over the sustainability of a jump in Russian industrial production for September, noting that the figure was swollen by a number of one-off factors — including the delivery of locomotives under a government-funded purchase order. 然而,其他人對俄羅斯沒有那么樂觀。

Perhaps more telling for Russia’s outlook was a fall in retail sales during the month. This appeared consistent with what Gazprom Bank noted in a research note has been a vicious slump in nominal wage growth to a historic low of 4.5 per cent in October.

Given that inflation is running at 15.5 per cent, Russian households are seeing their real spending power evaporate. 野村證券(Nomura)分析師德米特里?彼得洛夫(Dmitri Petrov)對俄羅斯9月工業產值飆升的可持續性表示懷疑,他指出,該數據得益于眾多一次性因素,包括政府采購的一批鐵路機車交貨。

In addition, Russia’s official full-year GDP growth forecast was revised downward in October to minus 3.9 per cent, lower than the minus 3.3 per cent forecast in September, Gazprom Bank noted. 或許更能說明俄羅斯前景的是,9月零售銷售下降。這似乎與俄羅斯天然氣工業銀行(Gazprom Bank)在一份研究報告中所指出的相符:今年10月名義薪資增長跌至4.5%的歷史最低水平。

China divides opinion, but services at least are robust 鑒于通脹率高達15.5%,俄羅斯家庭的實際購買力大幅下降。

China is another economy that divides opinion. Industrial output in September was weak, rising just 5.7 per cent year on year from 6.1 per cent in August as those industries hit by overcapacity continued their painful adjustment. The cement, flat glass, crude steel and coking coal industries all posted a year-on-year decline in output during the month. 此外,俄羅斯天然氣工業銀行指出,俄羅斯官方的全年GDP增長預測在10月向下修正為-3.9%,遜于9月預測的-3.3%。

Nevertheless, retail sales growth picked up during the month, demonstrating again the dichotomy between the slowing manufacturing and buoyant services sectors. 中國的形勢讓人意見分歧,但至少服務業強勁

Retail sales growth rose 10.9 per cent year on year in September, up from 10.8 per cent in August. Such buoyancy was also reflected by FT Confidential Research survey data, which showed that 56.7 per cent of respondents increased their spending in September, up from 54.9 per cent in August. 中國是又一個引發意見分歧的經濟體。9月工業產值疲弱,同比僅增長5.7%,而8月增長6.1%,原因是那些產能過剩的產業繼續進行痛苦的調整。水泥、平板玻璃、粗鋼和焦煤行業9月產值全都出現同比下降。

Shen Jiangguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities, forecasts that China’s GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will rise to above an officially reported 7 per cent, after easing to an official 6.9 per cent in the third quarter. He, along with many other China analysts, regards official growth figures as significantly overstating China’s real levels of GDP growth. 然而,9月零售銷售出現起色,再次表明要一分為二地看待中國,一方面是制造業放緩,另一方面是服務業強勁。

Nevertheless, a genuine stabilisation is in prospect, according to Mr Shen. It will be driven by further monetary loosening and increased pressures on banks to boost lending. 9月零售銷售同比增長10.9%,而8月是10.8%。英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務部門“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的研究數據也反映出此類積極跡象,數據顯示,56.7%的受訪者在9月增加支出,高于8月的54.9%。

Others disagree. David Hensley, analyst at JPMorgan, thinks Chinese infrastructure spending will gain speed as Beijing’s fiscal stimulus kicks in and this will stabilise GDP growth in the range of 6 to 6.5 per cent when it happens. 瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)首席亞洲經濟學家沈建光預計,在第三季度官方GDP數據放緩至6.9%之后,中國第四季度官方GDP增長率將高于7%。和其他許多中國分析師一樣,他認為官方增長數據顯著高估了中國GDP增長的實際水平。

But so far there is no evidence of this, resulting in a forecast of 6.3 per cent GDP growth for the fourth quarter, Mr Hensley said. 然而,沈建光表示,中國經濟增長有望真正企穩。中國政府將進一步出臺貨幣寬松舉措,并要求銀行加大放貸力度,這將會推動中國經濟增長。

Latin America shows few positive signs 其他人對此并不贊同。摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析師大衛?亨斯利(David Hensley)認為,隨著中國政府的財政刺激產生效果,中國的基礎設施支出將會加速,屆時GDP增長將在6%至6.5%的區間企穩。

Although some analysts say that signs of a stabilisation in China should underpin commodity prices and thus benefit Latin American producer-oriented economies such as Brazil, the outlook for the continent’s largest economy remains clouded by domestic issues. 但亨斯利表示,迄今并沒有這方面的跡象,這導致第四季度GDP的增長預測為6.3%。

“The economic conditions [in Brazil] remain awful,” wrote Monica Defend, head of global asset allocation research at Pioneer Investments. “The economy is in a deep recession and inflation is still high, notwithstanding the aggressive hawkish stance of the central bank. The perspectives are not rosy.” 拉美沒有什么積極跡象

To compound matters, political risk remains high with the possibility that President Dilma Rousseff may be impeached. 盡管一些分析師表示,大宗商品價格理應受到中國經濟增長企穩跡象的支撐,從而讓巴西等以大宗商品生產為主的拉美經濟體受益,但拉美最大經濟體的經濟前景依然受到國內問題的拖累。

In August, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Brazil’s foreign currency investment grade rating to junk, citing a revision of budget targets and uncertainty over the commitment of the government and Congress to the austerity programme. 鋒裕投資(Pioneer Investments)的全球資產配置研究總監莫妮卡?德芬迪(Monica Defend)寫道:“(巴西)經濟狀況依然很糟糕。該國經濟深陷衰退,同時盡管巴西央行采取激進鷹派立場,但通脹居高不下。前景并不樂觀。”

The outlook for Mexico, by contrast, appears more stable. Jorge O. Mariscal, CIO Emerging Markets at UBS, sees corporate earnings growth continuing at a high single-digit rate, but the peso’s volatility against the US dollar adds uncertainty. Third-quarter earnings, therefore, are set to show a positive trend but this will still not be enough to justify a bullish strategy toward Mexico, Mr Mariscal said. 雪上加霜的是,由于巴西總統迪爾瑪?羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)有可能遭到彈劾,政治風險依然很高。

今年8月,標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)將巴西外幣投資級別下調至“垃圾”級,理由是巴西調整預算目標,以及圍繞該國政府和國會對于緊縮計劃承諾的不確定性。

相比之下,墨西哥的前景似乎比較穩定。瑞銀(UBS)新興市場首席投資官豪爾赫?馬里斯卡爾(Jorge O. Mariscal)預計,企業盈利將保持較高的個位數增長,但比索兌美元的波動增加了不確定性。因此,第三季度盈利將呈現積極趨勢,但這將不足以說明應該看好墨西哥。

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