Economics)最近使用其專有的“GDP增長追蹤器”的數據表明，今年8月新興市場增長率達到3%，高于7月的2.8%。 Capital Economics, the research firm, used its proprietary “GDP
growth tracker” data this week to show that emerging market growth rose
to 3 per cent in August, up from 2.8 per cent in July.
The tracker shows a close correlation with subsequent official EM
GDP data over time. 傳統上，該追蹤器與隨后陸續發布的新興市場官方GDP數據有著密切的關聯。
“There is no sign in recent months’ data of the collapse in
growth that many have been talking about,” said Mark Williams, chief
Asia economist at Capital Economics in a report.
“Indeed, growth appears to have been fairly stable. If anything,
conditions now seem to be improving.” 凱投宏觀首席亞洲經濟學家馬克?威廉姆斯(Mark
The growth tracker data show that the pace of expansion in three
key EM regions — emerging Europe, emerging Asia and Latin America — is
showing signs of stabilisation. “實際上，增長似乎相當穩定。如果說有什么變化，那就是現在的情況似乎有所改善。”
Mr Williams says this shift derives from some significant changes
in the EM firmament.
The recession in Russia appears to be moderating, while Latin
America seems to have passed a trough and China’s growth has also
stabilised, he argues. 威廉姆斯表示，這種轉變源于新興市場宏觀環境的一些重大變化。
Emerging Europe steadies 他辯稱，俄羅斯經濟衰退似乎在趨緩，同時拉美似乎走出了低谷，而中國的增長也在企穩。
Economic Sentiment Indicators for the month of October, released
by the European Commission on Thursday, showed an improvement in seven
among nine central and eastern European countries covered. 新興歐洲企穩
Only the Czech Republic and Hungary — where economic sentiment
remained robust — showed a slight deterioration in optimism in the month
compared with September. 歐盟委員會(European
Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and
Estonia all showed an improvement in sentiment, bringing the aggregate
level to its highest point since September 2008.
The indicators, which accurately portrayed the 2008-09 crisis and
subsequent recovery, are arrived at by surveying representatives of the
manufacturing, services, retail and construction industries, as well as
The Capital Economics GDP tracker for emerging Europe showed a
contraction of 1.4 per cent in August, improving on the 1.8 per cent
fall in both July and June. Much of this improvement derives from a
moderation in Russia’s recession, the firm said.
Others, though, are less sanguine on Russia.
Dmitri Petrov, an analyst at Nomura, cast doubt over the
sustainability of a jump in Russian industrial production for September,
noting that the figure was swollen by a number of one-off factors —
including the delivery of locomotives under a government-funded purchase
Perhaps more telling for Russia’s outlook was a fall in retail
sales during the month. This appeared consistent with what Gazprom Bank
noted in a research note has been a vicious slump in nominal wage growth
to a historic low of 4.5 per cent in October.
Given that inflation is running at 15.5 per cent, Russian
households are seeing their real spending power evaporate.
In addition, Russia’s official full-year GDP growth forecast was
revised downward in October to minus 3.9 per cent, lower than the minus
3.3 per cent forecast in September, Gazprom Bank noted.
China divides opinion, but services at least are robust
China is another economy that divides opinion. Industrial output
in September was weak, rising just 5.7 per cent year on year from 6.1
per cent in August as those industries hit by overcapacity continued
their painful adjustment. The cement, flat glass, crude steel and coking
coal industries all posted a year-on-year decline in output during the
Nevertheless, retail sales growth picked up during the month,
demonstrating again the dichotomy between the slowing manufacturing and
buoyant services sectors. 中國的形勢讓人意見分歧，但至少服務業強勁
Retail sales growth rose 10.9 per cent year on year in September,
up from 10.8 per cent in August. Such buoyancy was also reflected by FT
Confidential Research survey data, which showed that 56.7 per cent of
respondents increased their spending in September, up from 54.9 per cent
Shen Jiangguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities,
forecasts that China’s GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will rise
to above an officially reported 7 per cent, after easing to an official
6.9 per cent in the third quarter. He, along with many other China
analysts, regards official growth figures as significantly overstating
China’s real levels of GDP growth.
Nevertheless, a genuine stabilisation is in prospect, according
to Mr Shen. It will be driven by further monetary loosening and
increased pressures on banks to boost lending.
Others disagree. David Hensley, analyst at JPMorgan, thinks
Chinese infrastructure spending will gain speed as Beijing’s fiscal
stimulus kicks in and this will stabilise GDP growth in the range of 6
to 6.5 per cent when it happens. 瑞穗證券(Mizuho
But so far there is no evidence of this, resulting in a forecast
of 6.3 per cent GDP growth for the fourth quarter, Mr Hensley said.
Latin America shows few positive signs
Although some analysts say that signs of a stabilisation in China
should underpin commodity prices and thus benefit Latin American
producer-oriented economies such as Brazil, the outlook for the
continent’s largest economy remains clouded by domestic issues.
“The economic conditions [in Brazil] remain awful,” wrote Monica
Defend, head of global asset allocation research at Pioneer Investments.
“The economy is in a deep recession and inflation is still high,
notwithstanding the aggressive hawkish stance of the central bank. The
perspectives are not rosy.” 拉美沒有什么積極跡象
To compound matters, political risk remains high with the
possibility that President Dilma Rousseff may be impeached.
In August, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Brazil’s foreign currency
investment grade rating to junk, citing a revision of budget targets and
uncertainty over the commitment of the government and Congress to the
austerity programme. 鋒裕投資(Pioneer Investments)的全球資產配置研究總監莫妮卡?德芬迪(Monica
The outlook for Mexico, by contrast, appears more stable. Jorge
O. Mariscal, CIO Emerging Markets at UBS, sees corporate earnings growth
continuing at a high single-digit rate, but the peso’s volatility
against the US dollar adds uncertainty. Third-quarter earnings,
therefore, are set to show a positive trend but this will still not be
enough to justify a bullish strategy toward Mexico, Mr Mariscal said.